IEA now expects coal demand to rise 1.2% this year
Higher gas prices following Middle East disruptions have changed the agency’s coal outlook from a slight decline to growth.
Source finding
The IEA forecasts 2026 coal demand at a record 8.94 billion tonnes, up 1.2%, in its September update.
Our analysis
Gas-to-coal switching can affect export markets even when coal itself does not move through Hormuz.
What remains uncertain
The 2027 path depends heavily on LNG flows and gas prices; demand does not directly predict a miner’s margin.