UK firms still expect the energy shock to squeeze margins
The Bank of England’s September panel found 70% of surveyed firms expected the energy shock to lower profit margins over the next year, while 57% expected to raise prices. The survey records expectations, not realised outcomes for every firm.
Why it matters
The September Decision Maker Panel received 1,993 responses between 4 and 18 September. Firms reported annual own-price growth of 3.7% and wage growth of 4.0% on three-month averages. Their year-ahead wage-growth expectation was 3.4%, implying slower pay growth in the survey rather than a measured fall that has already occurred.
Our interpretation is that the margin result matters alongside the price result. A business can face higher input costs without passing all of them to customers, so a price-rise expectation does not by itself establish stronger profitability. The useful follow-up is realised prices, wages, employment and margins in later releases. The panel is weighted and designed to represent UK businesses, but it remains a survey of expectations; it is not a forecast guarantee or a statement about every company.
Original source · Bank of England
Read the original source · Source date: 2 Oct 2026 · September survey
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